Texas Governor's race may be closer than it seems
Plethora of polls leading up to election day
10/30/2006
By: Harvey Kronberg
News 8 Austin
Copyright 2006
Polls are tricky things. The best are snapshots that explain public sentiment. The worst produce a predetermined outcome and offer no legitimate insight.
As might be expected, there has been a flurry of polls in this last month leading up to the election for governor. The Dallas Morning News and the trial lawyer funded Texans for Insurance Reform published polls a couple of weeks ago. Last Friday, the Strayhorn campaign let me report on some of their internal polling and finally, the Sunday Houston Chronicle published its poll.
To a large extent, the polls agree that while Perry is plagued with high negative feelings, he will win this election with 35-38 percent of the vote. Three of the polls also agree that Democrat Chris Bell and Independent Carole Strayhorn hover around 20 percent with Kinky Friedman in high single digits.
The only poll to disagree is the one conducted on behalf of the Strayhorn campaign showing Perry dropping to around 31 percent with the Comptroller breathing down his neck, only five points behind.
Most polls show Gov. Rick Perry comfortably ahead, but one claims the race may be closer than it seems.
Why was Strayhorn's poll so different?
The other three polls worked on the historically accurate assumption the Republican base vote is about 43 percent. The Strayhorn poll says that 43 percent is too high; that five percent of Republicans are fed up and will vote independent. She thinks this year the base vote will be down to 38 percent.
She may be right. With a backdrop of Iraq to Terry Schiavo, national polling suggests that conservative Republicans are holding fast but moderates seem to be looking for a change.
Or Strayhorn may be echoing the same polling mistake made by Tony Sanchez four years ago. His polling anticipated a Hispanic surge that never materialized.
The Chronicle polling does confirm one Strayhorn thesis. Nearly 40 percent of voters still don't know who Bell is, but Perry's attack ads have wounded the Democrat among those that do. Conversely, almost all voters now know Strayhorn and most have a positive view of her. As a result, her campaign argues that she is still the best positioned to close the anti-Perry sale in these final days of the campaign, especially because she has the money to be on TV and Bell may not.
Republicans are confident their voters will swallow their unhappiness and come home to the GOP. We'll be here on election night to let you know if they're right.
© 2006 TWEAN News Channel of Austin: www.news8austin.com
10/30/2006
By: Harvey Kronberg
News 8 Austin
Copyright 2006
Polls are tricky things. The best are snapshots that explain public sentiment. The worst produce a predetermined outcome and offer no legitimate insight.
As might be expected, there has been a flurry of polls in this last month leading up to the election for governor. The Dallas Morning News and the trial lawyer funded Texans for Insurance Reform published polls a couple of weeks ago. Last Friday, the Strayhorn campaign let me report on some of their internal polling and finally, the Sunday Houston Chronicle published its poll.
To a large extent, the polls agree that while Perry is plagued with high negative feelings, he will win this election with 35-38 percent of the vote. Three of the polls also agree that Democrat Chris Bell and Independent Carole Strayhorn hover around 20 percent with Kinky Friedman in high single digits.
The only poll to disagree is the one conducted on behalf of the Strayhorn campaign showing Perry dropping to around 31 percent with the Comptroller breathing down his neck, only five points behind.
Most polls show Gov. Rick Perry comfortably ahead, but one claims the race may be closer than it seems.
Why was Strayhorn's poll so different?
The other three polls worked on the historically accurate assumption the Republican base vote is about 43 percent. The Strayhorn poll says that 43 percent is too high; that five percent of Republicans are fed up and will vote independent. She thinks this year the base vote will be down to 38 percent.
She may be right. With a backdrop of Iraq to Terry Schiavo, national polling suggests that conservative Republicans are holding fast but moderates seem to be looking for a change.
Or Strayhorn may be echoing the same polling mistake made by Tony Sanchez four years ago. His polling anticipated a Hispanic surge that never materialized.
The Chronicle polling does confirm one Strayhorn thesis. Nearly 40 percent of voters still don't know who Bell is, but Perry's attack ads have wounded the Democrat among those that do. Conversely, almost all voters now know Strayhorn and most have a positive view of her. As a result, her campaign argues that she is still the best positioned to close the anti-Perry sale in these final days of the campaign, especially because she has the money to be on TV and Bell may not.
Republicans are confident their voters will swallow their unhappiness and come home to the GOP. We'll be here on election night to let you know if they're right.
© 2006 TWEAN News Channel of Austin:
posted by Porkus Maximus Tex: at Monday, October 30, 2006
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