"We're in for a real barnburner."
It's Perry vs. Bell, with more in wings
Governor: Strayhorn, Friedman start petition blitzes to join race
Wednesday, March 8, 2006
By WAYNE SLATER and CHRISTY HOPPE
The Dallas Morning News
Copyright 2006
AUSTIN – Voters in the Lone Star State, get ready for a governor's race that's anything but lonely.
The political marquee features an independent named Kinky, a veteran vote-getter who calls herself "one tough grandma," a Republican incumbent with less-than-sterling poll numbers and a Democrat who's a mystery to most Texans.
Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite to win re-election, experts say, but there's enough uncharted territory in a possible five-way race for governor to rewrite Texas political history.
"We're in for a real barnburner," said Greg Thielemann, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas. "There's a lot of politics between now and the end of the elections."
On Tuesday, Republicans nominated Mr. Perry to seek a second full term in November, and Democrats selected former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, hoping he could become the first Democrat elected governor since 1990. A pair of high-profile independents – Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and humorist Kinky Friedman – immediately embarked on petition-signature drives aimed at winning spots on the general election ballot.
Add a Libertarian to the mix – the party selects its nominee this summer – and Texas could have its busiest fall gubernatorial ballot ever.
Mr. Perry holds both the power and perils of incumbency, and each of his rivals brings a different approach for ousting him from office. According to their campaign blueprints, Mrs. Strayhorn will run an anti-Perry campaign and Mr. Friedman an anti-politics race. For the Democrat, it will be all about getting the base to come home.
With five years in office and an unparalleled war chest, Mr. Perry's task is to convince Texans that he's a leader with vision. Even if he falls well short of a majority, he can win easily if he can keep his coalition of religious conservatives and die-hard Republicans together.
The 36 percent that he garnered in a recent Dallas Morning News poll is "really terrible for an incumbent," Dr. Thielemann said.
But it could be enough. Mr. Perry will sell himself as the only conservative in the race.
"Something that is indisputable about Rick Perry is that he campaigns as a conservative Republican, and he governs as a conservative Republican," spokesman Robert Black said.
Mr. Perry is also prepared to fire relentlessly on any rival that gains ground.
"It's important for candidates to contrast themselves. And Rick Perry has never shied away from doing that," Mr. Black said.
The major stumbling block may be the special session on school finance. Five failed attempts to pass a plan leave him vulnerable.
"You will see the governor do everything he can to get a bill passed," Mr. Black said.
Bell looks for base
For Mr. Bell, restoring the Democrats' base will be key. In 2002, Democratic nominee Tony Sanchez got 40 percent in losing to Mr. Perry.
"All we have to do is get those Democrats to vote for Chris Bell, and we'll sleep well on election night," said Bell spokesman Jason Stanford.
But the Democrat seems to have been shrouded in Harry Potter's invisibility cloak. First – with virtually no money and no name recognition – he will have to convince voters that he exists. Up to this point, the party has been "an afterthought" in the campaign, Dr. Thielemann said.
What helps is that the Democratic Party has a grass-roots organization – perhaps in need of weeding, but it exists.
The independents "are having to build from the ground up with popsicle sticks," Mr. Stanford said.
But as Dr. Thielemann noted, Mrs. Strayhorn is taking in donations from major traditional Democratic contributors. The statewide party is "so beaten down" that many are willing to vote for an independent, nee Republican, in hopes of winning, he said.
Mr. Stanford said he recognizes the problem, but Mrs. Strayhorn has failed to distinguish herself and now is having her independent base split by Kinky Friedman.
"There might have been some merit to trying to beat Rick Perry with a Republican, but her awful campaign and the political landscape are conspiring against her," Mr. Stanford said.
A climb for Strayhorn?
To win, Mrs. Strayhorn must attract Republican voters unhappy with Mr. Perry's performance, especially on public education, and Democratic voters who see her as the best chance to defeat the incumbent.
Analysts say the political math is dicey. She must consolidate anti-Perry voters whose support is now spread among herself, Mr. Friedman and the Democratic nominee.
"It's a big mountain to climb," said pollster Mickey Blum. "The opposition is split three ways, and none of them have a shot. One of them has to break out, and people have to decide that if they don't want Perry, they have to agree on one of the others."
The comptroller, a Republican who chose to challenge Mr. Perry as an independent, is casting herself as a candidate who transcends partisanship.
She has denounced Mr. Perry as an ineffective leader who has failed to fix the state's school finance system, is influenced by big-dollar donors and has proposed a potentially unpopular toll road project.
Her fundraising reflects her bipartisan appeal. She has solicited money from a diverse donor base that includes both long-time Republican givers and a coterie of Texas trial lawyers who have long been a base of support for Democrats.
Friedman's mission
In contrast with his opponents, who are competing with a universe of likely voters, Mr. Friedman's hopes hinge on attracting millions of new voters.
"He has to go expand the electorate," said campaign manager Dean Barkley, who pursued much the same strategy to elect wrestler Jesse Ventura governor of Minnesota.
Mr. Barkley sees the same colorful persona in Mr. Friedman, a cigar-chomping country singer and mystery novelist with a classic outsider's slogan: "How hard could it be?"
"The nice thing about Kinky is he's already different than anybody else running," he said.
Analysts say that cuts both ways, though, and Mr. Friedman must demonstrate that he can offer serious ideas and govern if elected.
Mr. Barkley said the campaign hopes to stretch $8 million raised from individual donors and merchandise sales to pay for unorthodox TV media advertising and high-profile events featuring celebrities such as Willie Nelson.
"We're going after young voters who haven't voted, and see no reason to, and older voters who can't stand what they've seen," he said.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com and choppe@dallasnews.com
© 2006 The Dallas Morning News Co www.dallasnews.com
Governor: Strayhorn, Friedman start petition blitzes to join race
Wednesday, March 8, 2006
By WAYNE SLATER and CHRISTY HOPPE
The Dallas Morning News
Copyright 2006
AUSTIN – Voters in the Lone Star State, get ready for a governor's race that's anything but lonely.
The political marquee features an independent named Kinky, a veteran vote-getter who calls herself "one tough grandma," a Republican incumbent with less-than-sterling poll numbers and a Democrat who's a mystery to most Texans.
Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite to win re-election, experts say, but there's enough uncharted territory in a possible five-way race for governor to rewrite Texas political history.
"We're in for a real barnburner," said Greg Thielemann, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas. "There's a lot of politics between now and the end of the elections."
On Tuesday, Republicans nominated Mr. Perry to seek a second full term in November, and Democrats selected former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, hoping he could become the first Democrat elected governor since 1990. A pair of high-profile independents – Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and humorist Kinky Friedman – immediately embarked on petition-signature drives aimed at winning spots on the general election ballot.
Add a Libertarian to the mix – the party selects its nominee this summer – and Texas could have its busiest fall gubernatorial ballot ever.
Mr. Perry holds both the power and perils of incumbency, and each of his rivals brings a different approach for ousting him from office. According to their campaign blueprints, Mrs. Strayhorn will run an anti-Perry campaign and Mr. Friedman an anti-politics race. For the Democrat, it will be all about getting the base to come home.
With five years in office and an unparalleled war chest, Mr. Perry's task is to convince Texans that he's a leader with vision. Even if he falls well short of a majority, he can win easily if he can keep his coalition of religious conservatives and die-hard Republicans together.
The 36 percent that he garnered in a recent Dallas Morning News poll is "really terrible for an incumbent," Dr. Thielemann said.
But it could be enough. Mr. Perry will sell himself as the only conservative in the race.
"Something that is indisputable about Rick Perry is that he campaigns as a conservative Republican, and he governs as a conservative Republican," spokesman Robert Black said.
Mr. Perry is also prepared to fire relentlessly on any rival that gains ground.
"It's important for candidates to contrast themselves. And Rick Perry has never shied away from doing that," Mr. Black said.
The major stumbling block may be the special session on school finance. Five failed attempts to pass a plan leave him vulnerable.
"You will see the governor do everything he can to get a bill passed," Mr. Black said.
Bell looks for base
For Mr. Bell, restoring the Democrats' base will be key. In 2002, Democratic nominee Tony Sanchez got 40 percent in losing to Mr. Perry.
"All we have to do is get those Democrats to vote for Chris Bell, and we'll sleep well on election night," said Bell spokesman Jason Stanford.
But the Democrat seems to have been shrouded in Harry Potter's invisibility cloak. First – with virtually no money and no name recognition – he will have to convince voters that he exists. Up to this point, the party has been "an afterthought" in the campaign, Dr. Thielemann said.
What helps is that the Democratic Party has a grass-roots organization – perhaps in need of weeding, but it exists.
The independents "are having to build from the ground up with popsicle sticks," Mr. Stanford said.
But as Dr. Thielemann noted, Mrs. Strayhorn is taking in donations from major traditional Democratic contributors. The statewide party is "so beaten down" that many are willing to vote for an independent, nee Republican, in hopes of winning, he said.
Mr. Stanford said he recognizes the problem, but Mrs. Strayhorn has failed to distinguish herself and now is having her independent base split by Kinky Friedman.
"There might have been some merit to trying to beat Rick Perry with a Republican, but her awful campaign and the political landscape are conspiring against her," Mr. Stanford said.
A climb for Strayhorn?
To win, Mrs. Strayhorn must attract Republican voters unhappy with Mr. Perry's performance, especially on public education, and Democratic voters who see her as the best chance to defeat the incumbent.
Analysts say the political math is dicey. She must consolidate anti-Perry voters whose support is now spread among herself, Mr. Friedman and the Democratic nominee.
"It's a big mountain to climb," said pollster Mickey Blum. "The opposition is split three ways, and none of them have a shot. One of them has to break out, and people have to decide that if they don't want Perry, they have to agree on one of the others."
The comptroller, a Republican who chose to challenge Mr. Perry as an independent, is casting herself as a candidate who transcends partisanship.
She has denounced Mr. Perry as an ineffective leader who has failed to fix the state's school finance system, is influenced by big-dollar donors and has proposed a potentially unpopular toll road project.
Her fundraising reflects her bipartisan appeal. She has solicited money from a diverse donor base that includes both long-time Republican givers and a coterie of Texas trial lawyers who have long been a base of support for Democrats.
Friedman's mission
In contrast with his opponents, who are competing with a universe of likely voters, Mr. Friedman's hopes hinge on attracting millions of new voters.
"He has to go expand the electorate," said campaign manager Dean Barkley, who pursued much the same strategy to elect wrestler Jesse Ventura governor of Minnesota.
Mr. Barkley sees the same colorful persona in Mr. Friedman, a cigar-chomping country singer and mystery novelist with a classic outsider's slogan: "How hard could it be?"
"The nice thing about Kinky is he's already different than anybody else running," he said.
Analysts say that cuts both ways, though, and Mr. Friedman must demonstrate that he can offer serious ideas and govern if elected.
Mr. Barkley said the campaign hopes to stretch $8 million raised from individual donors and merchandise sales to pay for unorthodox TV media advertising and high-profile events featuring celebrities such as Willie Nelson.
"We're going after young voters who haven't voted, and see no reason to, and older voters who can't stand what they've seen," he said.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com and choppe@dallasnews.com
© 2006 The Dallas Morning News Co
posted by Porkus Maximus Tex: at Wednesday, March 08, 2006
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